Both, actually.

On the one hand, anti-immigrant voices are telling the American people that there is an enormous and unmanageable “surge” of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border that is a direct result of Joe Biden becoming president. “Be very afraid,” they assert. This surge will flood the country with a wave of lawlessness and disease and undermine our very identity as a nation.

That’s the myth part.

But what are the facts?

Yes. The number of people being apprehended at the border is up in recent weeks. This has happened for a variety of reasons, the four most significant of these are:

1. The time of year. Migration is cyclical and lots of people come when the worst winter cold is over and the summer heat hasn’t set in yet. This is because nobody wants to die in the desert. By the time the pecan trees in Texas have leafed out, the numbers will have subsided.
2. The backlog in processing asylum cases that was caused by the Trump administration’s Remain in Mexico (MPP) program. Biden has terminated the MPP, so the thousands of families who have been living in squalid conditions in the Mexican border cities are being allowed to come into the country. This is temporarily putting extra pressure processing and detention facilities.
3. A worsening ecological situation in Central America. The two hurricanes that hit the coast of Honduras last fall have devastated communities and destroyed people’s homes and livelihoods. The effects of climate change are also being felt by people in Guatemala, as coffee crops are plagued by drought and disease. This is on top of the usual push factors of violence, lawlessness, and discrimination that move people to leave Central America, which have not gotten any better.
4. People have heard that the U.S. will be more welcoming under the new Democratic administration and they feel like their chances of success have increased.

What can we expect? I don’t know. The flow of people to the US seeking jobs, safety, and a better life for themselves and their children is nothing new, and neither are horror stories about the nation being swallowed up by dangerous and unruly hordes of foreigners. I do know that we are better off focusing on the facts rather than the myths and compassion rather than fear.